'Sky falling,' says local chicken (Spring, 2004)

I've said this before, but when Time Magazine does a cover
story on it, it lends me some credibility. Americans will
worry themselves to death over asteroids, killer bees and
Satanic cults while ignoring, denying and dismissing serious
issues like global warming, pollution and political corruption.
They will have a fit over gay marriage while their president
gets away with lying about a war that has killed thousands.
They panic about avian flu, west Nile and ebola but won't
get a flu shot.

Here's what I said on the subject a couple years ago:

'Sky falling,' says local chicken

Whether you know it or not, we are all extremely lucky
to be alive this week. Oh sure, that might be true any
old week, but this week, every single man, woman and
child should sigh an extra sigh of relief because an asteroid
flew so close to the earth last week that it very nearly
took out a few weather satellites on its way by. Now
that's close.

The asteroid, 2004 FH, was about 100-feet in diameter,
which doesn't sound very big at all. Truth be told, it isn't
very big, but even a good-sized bullet is only about a half-
inch wide. Speed is what does the damage. Objects just a
little smaller than a school bus explode in the upper
atmosphere all the time, but anything a few feet bigger
would get much closer to the earth before going POP and
taking out an area the size of a small city - maybe even a
small city itself if it went POP over one.

2004 FH had only about a 25 percent chance of hitting the
earth, but what I'd like to know is why the percentages?
Yes or no, people, what's the problem?

The problem with an asteroid that is about the size of a
school bus is 1) it is hard to see in the vastness of space,
so we almost never know one is coming until a couple
months before it gets done doing whatever it is it's going
to do. 2) It is hard to judge the actual size of objects that
far away so "about the size of a school bus could mean
anything from tour bus-sized to VW Beetle-sized to "Oops,
I think I need to change my pants"-sized. 3) Objects flying
in space at variable speeds change courses so much that
astronomers are basically odds makers. 4) There is nothing
we can do about asteroids any way so why bother worrying
about it?

According to an article on SPACE.com by Robert Roly Britt,
"... there is no established chain of command to the White
House in relation to possible asteroid impacts, nor is there
any plan for what government agencies should do regarding
possible evacuations or emergency preparations."

And guess what? The only reason we think we need one is
because of a few movies that came out in the 1990s that made
everyone paranoid that the Earth could be smacked at any
given moment by giant space rocks.

The boring truth is we really don't need a contingency plan
for asteroids because it wouldn't work anyway. Oh sure, in
the popular imagination, we do. But then enough people have
watched "American Idol" to make it last three seasons. So
much for the popular imagination.

The Earth hasn't been hit by an asteroid in a long time. We
are probably due to get nailed sometime relatively soon in
geological terms, but that could still mean millions of years.
Space is big. Real big. It's like, take the biggest thing you ever
saw and multiply that by a hundred thousand million times
and it's still nothing compared to just how really big space is.
It's inconceivable because it cannot be conceived.

According to Britt's article, "NASA spends a modest $3.5
million per year as part of the Spaceguard Survey search
for large asteroids, the sort that could cause global damage,
including a global 'winter' that might last years and could kill
off some species and possibly threaten civilization. Were one
of these objects bigger than 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) found to
be on an Earth-impact trajectory, scientists agree the warming
time would almost certainly be years or decades."

Hooray for our side. Now when the end is nigh, we can sweat
about it for years before realizing we were wrong.

With smaller asteroids, there is no way of telling where they
are going to strike once they hit the atmosphere and start
spinning. A few days out and scientists could still only say
2004 FH had about a 25 percent chance of hitting us. Thank
God it wasn't cloudy!

Now, let's say we do find out that in 30 years, a planet-killer
is coming. What are we supposed to do about it? There's not
much we COULD do since we are still basically a bunch of
primitive troglodytes who are WAY TOO IMPRESSED by
our cell phones. We need to make the future happen. Even
in several episodes of "Star Trek" where this plot actually
occurred, it proved very difficult to destroy or divert an
asteroid. And that's like 300 years away, man. They've
got phasers, tractor beams and powerful starships. What
do we have? Little, tiny rovers about the size of a go-cart.
We're screwed, man.

So this last "scare" has prompted NASA to take action.
Move over, Vin Diesel. Sit down, The Rock. Here comes
NASA! The big plan? The next time astronomers see a big,
old asteroid of any merit coming our way, they are going to
tell somebody. Hey, that's great.

Could we start building some spaceships, please? When I was
a kid, the future was supposed to be cool groove replete with
jet packs and flying cars. I don't think we've even cured any
major diseases since I was a kid let alone tackled some of the
issues facing the planet on a daily basis like making a car that
runs on hydrogen instead of fossil fuels. That would be nice.
Frankly, if we want to do something about the potential
destruction of the Earth, we should be worrying about
pollution, global warming, nuclear proliferation, over-population,
mass extinction and our dying oceans. Asteroids are just an
excuse to ignore real problems on Earth that are too hard to
bother with.
- You wanna rock? Here ya go. Tonight, Council Bluffs steps
20 minutes into the future as Storytellers at Barley's starts
in earnest at 7 p.m. Poets Matt Mason, Chad Lilly and Rick
LaFerla are lined up as is blues guitarist John Watt and Joe
Lidgett. Councilman Matt Walsh has a story I know the Hon.
Tom H. won't want to miss. You know you have stories, poems,
lyrics and anecdotes to share so play that funky music already,
white boy! Just remember, a big rock could fall from space and
kill us all in an instant, have you lived enough yet?
- Greg Jerrett is a Nonpareil staff writer. His column runs on
Wednesdays and Saturdays. He may be reached at 325-5746,
or at gjerrett@nonpareilonline.com.